Bruno’s Newsletter #1

I argued in Geopolitics for the End Time that what we saw during the pandemic, a race against every other country, often drawing a form of perverse political pleasure from comparative tables of success and failure, that logic will be embraced once again during the long climate crisis. Wealthier countries and cities will be able to invest resources in adapting to climate change. Heat waves can be mitigated with more widespread use of air conditioning. Energy systems will be made more resilient. Expensive landscaping might be able to keep cities liveable for longer and countries will build defensive infrastructure against the rise of sea levels and unprecedented storms. Less fortunate regions will face these challenges just as their economies and societies enter financial and debt crises, and as the availability of international aid disappears. Global economic competition and the climate crisis will increasingly form a single whole. For many countries, large floods or fires will wreak economic havoc, making it all the more difficult to find resources for climate adaptation. Others may be able to provide a safe haven for global companies and logistics, boosting their economies, at least at first.

At four degrees of warming, corn yields in the United States are expected to drop by almost half. China, Argentina or Brazil could lose at least a fifth of their productivity. In this scenario, access to croplands becomes a matter of national security and control of strategic territory may once again become an index of national power. A return to older forms of colonial empire remains unlikely, but major powers will want to develop global networks of economic and political influence allowing them to guarantee access to vital supplies even in the most adverse scenarios. And it is not just croplands, of course: many critical segments in global supply chains, from semiconductors to rare earths, are concentrated in regions highly vulnerable to climate risk. It is easy to anticipate that, with global markets in turmoil, geopolitical alliances will offer greater guarantees of access to vital supplies, but this is a path of rapidly escalating global conflict and generalised impoverishment, a struggle for survival in a world of diminishing returns leading, almost inevitably, to a new and devastating world war.

So let me be clear: this is not where the question of global power will be decided. In order to escape the remorseless logic of diminishing returns, human progress will have to be rebuilt on new grounds, artificial grounds, a new civilisation where technological progress leaves no physical footprint in the larger environment. Those who first succeed in designing and building this world will enjoy a form of power largely exceeding that present in previous world building exercises.

Become a paying subscriber of Premium to get access to this post and other subscriber-only content.

Already a paying subscriber? Sign In.